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More than half a century since the Civil Rights Act became law, U. workers continue to experience different levels of success depending on their race.

Analysis using microdata on earnings shows that black men and women earn persistently lower wages compared with their white counterparts and that these gaps cannot be fully explained by differences in age, education, job type, or location.

Interest rates are inherently difficult to predict, and the simple random walk benchmark has proven hard to beat.

But macroeconomics can help, because the long-run trend in interest rates is driven by the trend in inflation and the equilibrium real interest rate.

Because demographic movements tend to be long-lasting, their ongoing effects could keep interest rates near the lower bound longer.

This has the potential to limit the scope for central banks to respond to future recessionary shocks.

Although the labor market has steadily strengthened, wage growth has remained slow in recent years.

This raises the question of whether the wage Phillips curve—the traditional relationship between labor market slack and wage growth—has weakened.

However, the standard measures account for only the unemployed and not those who are out of the labor force. Analysis based on the global relationship between economic development and oil demand illustrates the prospects for Chinese oil demand growth and the resulting opportunities and challenges for U. However, the natural rate is not directly observable and must be estimated.

Monetary policymakers are well advised to account for the perennial problem of uncertainty surrounding these estimates in devising and carrying out policy strategies.

When products disappear from the market with no substitutes from the same manufacturer, they may have been replaced by cheaper or better products from a different manufacturer.

But factors including the real natural rate of interest, a slower sustainable pace of growth, and inflation all point to a new normal where interest rates are lower than in the 1990s and early 2000s.

The following is adapted from a speech by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Community Banking in the 21st Century Research and Policy Conference in St. Exchange rate stabilization or currency “pegs” are among the most prevalent interventions in international financial markets.

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